5G yet premature?
Gartner 2020 trends and thoughts on this
6 Kasım 2019
Expertise or generalists for innovation
4 Aralık 2019
No technology in the telecom industry has been heavily promoted as much as 5G, with both service providers and vendors predicting that 5G networks will enable massively scalable mobile services. However, how close are we to all of these promising life easing developments? Where do you think 5G is located on Gartner’s hype cycle today?
Walking around the peak of inflated expectations or headed towards the trough of disillusionment? There was no single week passed in the last years which one of the mobile operators anywhere around the world announced that they had the fastest 5G trial or starting with the giants; operators are announcing their deployment plans — however, divestment and project revisiting news about Nokia reminding solid moves to the platform of reality.
On one side, 5G-enabled self-driving cars, remote surgery, smart cities, augmented reality and 4K gaming are possible promising products to name. On the other hand, a period of disillusionment is inevitable, as all stakeholders handle with the hard realities of turning theory into sophisticated 5G technologies at scale, and help users to benefit fascinating value from the services.
The story is pretty promising and bright. The critical point of differentiation between LTE and 5G is the capability to provide ultra-low latency and extreme high-reliability connectivity service to applications.
On one side, 5G-enabled self-driving cars, remote surgery, smart cities, augmented reality and 4K gaming are possible promising products to name. On the other hand, a period of disillusionment is inevitable, as all stakeholders handle with the hard realities of turning theory into sophisticated 5G technologies at scale, and help users to benefit fascinating value from the services.
The story is pretty promising and bright. The critical point of differentiation between LTE and 5G is the capability to provide ultra-low latency and extreme high-reliability connectivity service to applications.
5G compared to 4.5G is expected to be 10 to 100 times faster, but the real thing is latency. From 200 milliseconds for 4G, one millisecond (1ms) is anticipated with 5G.
The average reaction time for humans to a visual stimulus is 250 ms or 1/4 of a second. With proper training, people can lower down around 190-200 ms
Imagine now that your car could react 250 times faster than you. Imagine it could also respond to hundreds of incoming information and can also communicate its reactions back to other vehicles and road signals all within milliseconds.
Possible uses of low latency will be
· V2X (Vehicle-to-Everything) communication: autonomous, connected cars,
· Immersive Virtual Reality Gaming,
· Remote surgical operations,
· Simultaneous translating.
In terms of the agenda which is issued by the 3gpp organization, we can expect the following aspects in the coming years, but not as of today.
· Massive M2M / IoT (from 2021-2022)
· Ultra low-latency IoT critical communications (from 2024-2025)
I regularly follow use-case articles such as the Harbour Festival held in July of 2019 in Bristol. As owners of the organization summarized what 5G brought was;
Imagine now that your car could react 250 times faster than you. Imagine it could also respond to hundreds of incoming information and can also communicate its reactions back to other vehicles and road signals all within milliseconds.
Possible uses of low latency will be
· V2X (Vehicle-to-Everything) communication: autonomous, connected cars,
· Immersive Virtual Reality Gaming,
· Remote surgical operations,
· Simultaneous translating.
In terms of the agenda which is issued by the 3gpp organization, we can expect the following aspects in the coming years, but not as of today.
· Massive M2M / IoT (from 2021-2022)
· Ultra low-latency IoT critical communications (from 2024-2025)
I regularly follow use-case articles such as the Harbour Festival held in July of 2019 in Bristol. As owners of the organization summarized what 5G brought was;
“We created a service that allowed people at one stage to see what was happening at other stages or locations, to decide whether they were missing out or better off staying where they were.”
Though the tone of the case was very positive, major takeaway on this article which was brought to the attention was:
“Showcasing 5G at public events has helped people appreciate that this goes far beyond simply upgrading your handset.”
Offering handsets to consumers are far below the capacity of the theory. 5G is not a direct product to be consumed, but with the changing architecture of incumbent industries, indirectly be benefited by the end-user.
When all test trials and brand awareness oriented first-mover deployment activities are stripped, we have to face the apparent reality. MNOs will require to operate a new spectrum in the 6 to 300 GHz range, which means massive investments in the network infrastructure.
Let aside topology complexity in deploying 5G compared to predecessor 4G, 5G radios operate at high frequencies that are distance-limited, requiring operators to use dense networks of small cells to serve up high-speed radio connections. To cover a given geographic area, the number of 5G radios deployed will increase by a factor of 100 compared to 4G macrocells.
The challenging question is, which of the stakeholders will cover the total cost of such a full coverage that will enable the public use of services like autonomous driving, mass m2m applications, and so. Predecessor generations were consumer-based, and substantial uptake rates helped to recover the investments of operators. For this new generation, the total cost versus the possible value proposition that operators can collect money is incomparable. In the short run, else than high dense populated city centers and project-based manufacturing facilities, propagation of this technology looks not feasible.
While some experts might tell different stories about the 5G's exact position in the hype cycle, with the embryonic state of the market, I have to admit that 5G is still a long way from reaching its plateau of productivity.
When all test trials and brand awareness oriented first-mover deployment activities are stripped, we have to face the apparent reality. MNOs will require to operate a new spectrum in the 6 to 300 GHz range, which means massive investments in the network infrastructure.
Let aside topology complexity in deploying 5G compared to predecessor 4G, 5G radios operate at high frequencies that are distance-limited, requiring operators to use dense networks of small cells to serve up high-speed radio connections. To cover a given geographic area, the number of 5G radios deployed will increase by a factor of 100 compared to 4G macrocells.
The challenging question is, which of the stakeholders will cover the total cost of such a full coverage that will enable the public use of services like autonomous driving, mass m2m applications, and so. Predecessor generations were consumer-based, and substantial uptake rates helped to recover the investments of operators. For this new generation, the total cost versus the possible value proposition that operators can collect money is incomparable. In the short run, else than high dense populated city centers and project-based manufacturing facilities, propagation of this technology looks not feasible.
While some experts might tell different stories about the 5G's exact position in the hype cycle, with the embryonic state of the market, I have to admit that 5G is still a long way from reaching its plateau of productivity.